Market Comment Q1 2017

    THE TRUMP TRADE By the time you read this, the Trump administration will have been in power for some weeks. Prior to the inauguration, stock markets rallied in expectation of lower taxes, less regulation, higher defense spending, a possible fiscal stimulus program and, in the case of financial companies, the higher interest rates that all… Read more »


    Market Comment Q3 2016

      The outcome of the US Presidential election may not have large economic consequences, as the behavior of markets and economies is simply influenced by too many factors. But the election hints at a potential sea change in the underlying political economy, in particular regarding free trade and globalization. In addition, both candidates have expressed support… Read more »


      Market Comment Q1 2016

        The US stock market has not done much but fluctuate since the end of 2014. At this writing, broad stock market averages are within hailing distance of their all-time highs, but are still only a smidgeon above their levels at the end of 2014. Following the market low in March, 2009, a wave of increasing… Read more »


        Market Comment Q4 2015

          The combination of high stock market valuations and sluggish growth can be volatile. Following four years of steady advance, in August the stock market succumbed to a correction, popularly defined as a price decline of 10% or more. As shown in the accompanying chart, the S&P 500 declined 260 points from its peak, or 12%,… Read more »